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What your bookie won't tell you part 3
04-24-2009, 07:15 AM
Post: #1
What your bookie won't tell you part 3
Today's subject is "betting middles" and it can get you 20:1 or even 40:1 on your money!

Here is how it works. Say you find one book with Steelers -2.5 over Dallas. Then you find another giving Dallas +3.5 on the same game.

You bet a unit on the Steelers giving the 2.5 and another on Dallas, taking the 3.5. Here are possible results. (I'm using a sample score here for simplicity, it is the difference between the scores that coutns, not the actual finan score.)

Assume you are betting a "dime" ($1,000) as a unit.

Steelers 14
Dallas 10

So you win $900 (after juice) on the Steelers and lose $1,000 on the cowboys, net loss $100.

Steelers 12
Dallas 10

Here you lose $1,000 on the Steelers but win $900 on Dallas. Net loss $100.

Steelers 13
Dallas 10

NOW IT GETS INTERESTING!

You win $900 because the Steelers covered the 2.5, but you also win $900 because you "took" 3.5 points on Dallas! You won $1800!!!

OK, so you are probably saying, "Nice, AZ, but how often will this happen??"

The answer is about 1 in 7 NFL games end at *exactly* a 3 point difference!

So if you did this perfectly you would lose $100 six times for $600. But you would win $1800 one time in that 7, up $1,200!!!!!

A few pointers are in order here:

1. Every bookie knows people try this and situations are rare. You might have to take this as a partial-hedge when you see a line move. "The Wizard of Odds" says, "NEVER HEDGE" but I say it is not a real hedge but a planned play.

2. Remember, you will come out on the wrong end of this six of seven times, so don't spend the cash before it comes in. Also remember if you are playing with a "street" bookie they expect payment Tuesday and do not pay out until Thursday as a common practice. If that happens you better have the cash or a bookie who will let you skate. Better to just play at the window at Bellagio.

3. Also remember, this is a complex, "delta neutral" play. Just like covering options/stocks. You need to make a "risk graph" of what happens, or else you can turn a guaranteed "winner middle" into a guaranteed "loser middle" if you place the order wrong.

4. The "half point" is very, very key in this play. A spread of 2.5/3.5 is great for this play. THE LAST THING YOU WANT IS A PUSHABLE PLAY! If one side pushes and the other loses, you lose! I can't stress enough to do a risk graph, no matter how much of a nerd it makes you feel like.

It is a mixed bag. With the internet online books can be compared in seconds. But you may only have seconds to get a play down because every bookie knows people want to try this. To be a pro gambler even part time is work like any other job. So keep your eyes peeled.

Good Luck!
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