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Which analysis do you use?
03-04-2009, 09:03 AM
Post: #1
Which analysis do you use?
There seems to be two schools of thought on picking an NFL game. One school goes for numbers and history, the other for "people stuff."

EXAMPLE:

I was picking a game last fall that featured the Rams against I forget who. I based my pick (broadcast to all of two people!) entirely on numbers. Meaning the opponents of the Rams were covering all spreads lately, the opposing team had a history of covering that spread size. Home/away records the last 3 years, etc.

Now, a friend said he believed in the "people" end. His analysis was, "The GM said things will change if they don't change. Jobs are on the line so people will play better."

In the end, I held up on htis one. But I'd like to get another discussion going here. Which do you prefer--the numbers way or the people way. I know a "balanced" plan might be best, but for sake of discussion, if you prefer one or the other, why? Results?
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03-04-2009, 09:43 AM
Post: #2
RE: Which analysis do you use?
Well, most of my friends use the "balanced" way of picking a winner. For me it's the numbers way since I don't track any teams plus the info from other punters. For example, a game of football (soccer in US);
Real Madrid vs Barcelona, odds are: Home win 2.44 Draw 3.2 Away win 3.5. If i read important info regarding Barcelona's first team, something like 3 key players are on the bench for this game, I will probably disregard the statistics and play on a Away win or maybe a draw since because of it I think this becomes a value bet if odds are not corrected accordingly to this info. If the teams composition is standard, with no special info I will value numbers more.
I'm mostly around break even, small minus.

On the other hand, my brother extracts picks from various sites/tipsters into excel, and based on the sites/tipsters statistics makes his picks. He has shown some success lately.

"Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit." - R. E. Shay
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03-04-2009, 09:59 AM
Post: #3
RE: Which analysis do you use?
I've tried making picks based only on numbers, like streaks, stats, previous matches between the 2 teams and it didn't work.
I've tried making picks based on people stuff, like "they need this win" to stay in the league and it didn't work.

Lately, I search various forums and blogs for "special info", and for now it's been a small +.
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03-04-2009, 10:55 AM
Post: #4
RE: Which analysis do you use?
(03-04-2009 09:43 AM)KillJoy Wrote:  Well, most of my friends use the "balanced" way of picking a winner. For me it's the numbers way since I don't track any teams plus the info from other punters. For example, a game of football (soccer in US);
Real Madrid vs Barcelona, odds are: Home win 2.44 Draw 3.2 Away win 3.5. If i read important info regarding Barcelona's first team, something like 3 key players are on the bench for this game, I will probably disregard the statistics and play on a Away win or maybe a draw since because of it I think this becomes a value bet if odds are not corrected accordingly to this info. If the teams composition is standard, with no special info I will value numbers more.
I'm mostly around break even, small minus.

On the other hand, my brother extracts picks from various sites/tipsters into excel, and based on the sites/tipsters statistics makes his picks. He has shown some success lately.


Well, one day I hope to resurrect my hard drive and add missing information into my NFL database and sell it online. Lots of work left to do and I had hoped to make an interactive website out of it, but that would be a job in itself. Basically I have about 10 factors like home/away, streak coming into the game, etc. If I can get it going it will be great. Excel spreadsheet and would work for any team and even put the team agains the league. (eg: The average team in the league has an average drop-off offensively of 3 points after a monday night game but Baltimore drops 4) That is all made up numbers, but with the real numbers and someone who could help me with the math I would suspect an advantage.

Then read the injury line, etc and fine-tune it!
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03-04-2009, 10:18 PM
Post: #5
RE: Which analysis do you use?
(03-04-2009 09:43 AM)KillJoy Wrote:  On the other hand, my brother extracts picks from various sites/tipsters into excel, and based on the sites/tipsters statistics makes his picks. He has shown some success lately.

And he also started using money management!

(03-04-2009 10:55 AM)AZDuffman Wrote:  Well, one day I hope to resurrect my hard drive and add missing information into my NFL database and sell it online. Lots of work left to do and I had hoped to make an interactive website out of it, but that would be a job in itself. Basically I have about 10 factors like home/away, streak coming into the game, etc. If I can get it going it will be great. Excel spreadsheet and would work for any team and even put the team agains the league. (eg: The average team in the league has an average drop-off offensively of 3 points after a monday night game but Baltimore drops 4) That is all made up numbers, but with the real numbers and someone who could help me with the math I would suspect an advantage.

Then read the injury line, etc and fine-tune it!

Hmmm..., first question that comes to my mind is whats the advantage of your stats compared to other stats available on the Internet?
Most of those stats can probably be data mined from the Internet.

But if you have something that other sites don't have to offer then why not try building a dynamic site and try to monetize it? If it would become a success you could be earning some nice money on the side or even so much that you could quit your day job if you'd like.

Dynamic site would have filters/conditions that a visitor could use to get the data he wants and the way that he wants. So this database wouldn't be processed prior to putting it on a site, but in real time on a server.

What math do you need to be done? If it's nothing complicated it could probably be done quickly by someone who knows his Excel stuff good.

"Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit." - R. E. Shay
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